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Still undecided, the US elections put indices on the rise – Market Overview – November 4, 2020

Still undecided, the US elections put indices on the rise – Market Overview – November 4, 2020

The US presidential elections are in the worst possible scenario.

That of the uncertainty that is on the way to lead to a serious institutional crisis. In the early hours in the United States, Donald Trump has appropriated a victory that does not yet exist at the polls and has threatened to appeal to justice if the counting of the votes by mail is not stopped, which can mark him as a loser.

Nothing is clear at the moment. In these very atypical elections marked by the pandemic and by a flurry of early voting and by mail, the scrutiny can be delayed and leave a different result than the one now presented.

Trump, who, at the present time, was leading the electoral result, has accused the Democrats of trying to steal the election, thus confessing concern about the outcome.

During the presentation of the partial results by States, the market has acted very clearly.

When scrutiny gave the Democrats the upper hand, stock markets rose, especially the DowJones30 and S&P500.

The German DAX index also saw gains.

As we commented in yesterday's analysis, a Trump defeat would be beneficial for Europe by ruling out the possibility of imposing tariffs on exports from the European Union.

The Nasdaq technology index, however, has continued to rise, even within the current chaos and uncertainty, which confirms that a victory for the current president would be seen by the market as favorable for the technology stocks that make up this index.

In the currency market, almost all pairs are still undecided. During the course of the scrutiny, while Biden seemed to have a clear advantage, the Dollar weakened, but as the confrontation for the result and uncertainty began, the Dollar has strengthened marginally, erasing some of the previous losses.

This indicates a structural downtrend that is likely to continue once there is a clear election outcome. However, the lack of results, the confrontation between the contenders and, in general, the uncertainty, if it continues, could strengthen the USD, which in this case would act as a safe-haven.

In any case, whatever the final outcome of the elections, the Fed will have to continue with its low interest rate policy and with its asset purchase program and this will result in continued downward pressure on the US currency.

Maklumat/penyelidikan ini disediakan oleh Miguel Ruiz (“tpenganalisis penyelidikan”) dan tidak mengambil kira objektif pelaburan tertentu, keadaan kewangan atau keperluan khusus individu. Penganalisis penyelidikan bertanggungjawab terhadap kandungan laporan penyelidikan ini, samada sebahagian atau keseluruhannya, memperakui bahawa pandangan mengenai syarikat dan sekuriti mereka yang dinyatakan dalam laporan ini jelas mencerminkan pandangan peribadi dan pedagang bertanggungjawab sepenuhnya ke atas risiko mereka sendiri.

Penyelidikan yang disediakan bukanlah pandangan JME Financial Services (Pty) Ltd ataupun undangan untuk melabur dengan JME Financial Services (Pty) Ltd. Penganalisis penyelidikan juga memperakui bahawa tiada sebahagian daripada pampasannya, adalah, atau akan, secara langsung atau tidak langsung, berkaitan dengan cadangan atau pandangan tertentu yang dinyatakan dalam laporan ini.

Sehingga tarikh laporan diterbitkan, penganalisis penyelidikan dan pasangannya dan/atau saudara-mara yang bergantung kepada penganalisis penyelidikan, tidak memegang kepentingan dalam sekuriti yang dicadangkan dalam laporan ini (“kepentingan” termasuk pemilikan langsung atau tidak langsung terhadap sekuriti).

Penganalisis penyelidikan tersebut bukanlah di bawah JME Financial Services (Pty) Ltd. Anda digalakkan mendapatkan nasihat daripada penasihat kewangan bebas mengenai kesesuaian pelaburan, di bawah penglibatan berasingan, seperti yang anda anggap sesuai dengan objektif pelaburan tertentu anda, keadaan kewangan atau keperluan kewangan tertentu sebelum membuat komitmen untuk melabur.

Undang-undang Republik Afrika Selatan akan mengawal sebarang tuntutan yang berkaitan dengan atau yang timbul daripada kandungan maklumat/ penyelidikan yang disediakan.