Negative macro-economic data in Germany – Market Overview

Negative macro-economic data in Germany – Market Overview

Germany's economy falters, data showing GDP decrease

After a slight lightening in the markets, yesterday afternoon after some measures were taken to avoid excess volatility in some North American stocks that had experienced movements well above the usual as a result of actions promoted by associated retail traders on platforms like WallStreetbets; risk aversion is once again dominating the market.

Uncertainty remains due to the possibility that events like yesterdays will happen again. There are no regulatory means in the United States to avoid this, and traditional institutional investors are beginning to feel insecure about these events.

Added to all this are the economic figures that are not precisely positive at this epidemic stage.

Employment and GDP data in Europe

Germany, the leading country of the European Union, has had a fall in employment of 41k vs + 6k expected and a decrease in the interannual GDP of the fourth quarter of -2.9%, somewhat better than anticipated -3.4%, but a negative figure in any case.

Expectations for recovery are still weak as stated by the President of the ECB, Lagarde, especially with the latest data on the evolution of contagions from the pandemic that has led to a slowdown in economic activity as a result of mobility restriction measures.

The German DAX index remains under pressure in this scenario. In this case, the confrontation between the European Commission and the pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca is an instability factor. The possibility that the vaccine administration schedule may not be fulfilled as planned, with what this means a delay in the economy's opening.

The index is very close to the primary support located at 13424 points, whose break to the downside would mean the confirmation of the end of the last uptrend that began last November. The German index would head towards lower levels below this support in the 13140 points area where the 100-day SMA line passes, from a technical analysis perspective.

The Dollar strengthens again due to its status as a safe-haven currency and the maintenance of the yields of the US Treasury bonds, which in the case of the 10-year bond is at 1.06%.

EUR/USD falls back to the 1.2100 area and is approaching the main 1.2065 support area. Technically, a downward break from this level would trigger a reversal pattern whose theoretical target is around the 1.1850 levels, a critical price concentration zone, which would support the pair.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters.

Maklumat/penyelidikan ini disediakan oleh Miguel Ruiz (“tpenganalisis penyelidikan”) dan tidak mengambil kira objektif pelaburan tertentu, keadaan kewangan atau keperluan khusus individu. Penganalisis penyelidikan bertanggungjawab terhadap kandungan laporan penyelidikan ini, samada sebahagian atau keseluruhannya, memperakui bahawa pandangan mengenai syarikat dan sekuriti mereka yang dinyatakan dalam laporan ini jelas mencerminkan pandangan peribadi dan pedagang bertanggungjawab sepenuhnya ke atas risiko mereka sendiri.

Penyelidikan yang disediakan bukanlah pandangan JME Financial Services (Pty) Ltd ataupun undangan untuk melabur dengan JME Financial Services (Pty) Ltd. Penganalisis penyelidikan juga memperakui bahawa tiada sebahagian daripada pampasannya, adalah, atau akan, secara langsung atau tidak langsung, berkaitan dengan cadangan atau pandangan tertentu yang dinyatakan dalam laporan ini.

Sehingga tarikh laporan diterbitkan, penganalisis penyelidikan dan pasangannya dan/atau saudara-mara yang bergantung kepada penganalisis penyelidikan, tidak memegang kepentingan dalam sekuriti yang dicadangkan dalam laporan ini (“kepentingan” termasuk pemilikan langsung atau tidak langsung terhadap sekuriti).

Penganalisis penyelidikan tersebut bukanlah di bawah JME Financial Services (Pty) Ltd. Anda digalakkan mendapatkan nasihat daripada penasihat kewangan bebas mengenai kesesuaian pelaburan, di bawah penglibatan berasingan, seperti yang anda anggap sesuai dengan objektif pelaburan tertentu anda, keadaan kewangan atau keperluan kewangan tertentu sebelum membuat komitmen untuk melabur.

Undang-undang Republik Afrika Selatan akan mengawal sebarang tuntutan yang berkaitan dengan atau yang timbul daripada kandungan maklumat/ penyelidikan yang disediakan.

JME Financial Services (Pty) Ltd, beroperasi sebagai ZA.CAPEX.COM, bertindak sebagai perantara antara pelabur dan Magnasale Trading Ltd, rakan kontrak untuk perbezaan yang dibeli oleh pelabur melalui ZA.CAPEX.COM, yang diberi kuasa dan dikawal selia oleh Cyprus Securities. dan Suruhanjaya Pertukaran dengan nombor lesen 264/15. Magnasale Trading Ltd adalah prinsip utama CFD yang dibeli oleh pelabur.