Mixed bag o’ tricks for global equites in second trading day of the year – Market Overview

Mixed bag o’ tricks for global equites in second trading day of the year – Market Overview

After the setback suffered by the stock markets during the North American session yesterday, the market begins with hesitation awaiting events.

The total lockdown announced yesterday by the British government and the increases in the number of infections in the rest of the world are factors of concern for investors. Even though the administration of vaccines has already begun worldwide, this can only be assessed in its positive effects within a few months.

US Senate Elections

Currently, the market's attention is focused on the results of the Senate elections in the second round "run-off" in Georgia. It will depend on them whether the majority in this chamber is Republican or Democratic.

But whatever the result, something that will not be known with certainty until the end of the week, the market's effects are still uncertain. Although a majority of Democrats, what has been called a "bluewave," could be an incentive for the stock markets to anticipate more significant stimulus measures, on the other hand, it could also arouse concern about an increase in the tax burden ahead of the more probable increase in public spending.

A divided Congress, a Republican majority in the Senate, also has a binary interpretation. This is a brake on the tax increase but with less probability of an aggressive fiscal policy.

Therefore, the possible effect in the market when the result is known would be more short-term without constituting a trend element in the long term.

The return to basics, to the fundamentals, will be the main characteristic of the market once all these geopolitical factors derived from the elections and the measures adopted to stop the pandemic are left behind.

European Macro Data

In this sense, today, the economic figure of retail sales in Germany for November has been published with a notable increase compared to the expected 5.6% vs. 3.9%.

This is a good figure joined by the change in unemployment in December that improves by -39k compared to the +10k expected.

Both data are positive.

Even so, it has not been enough to push the DAX index higher, which remains below the highs reached on December 29, with four consecutive trading days of losses and an intermediate support level in the area of ​​13465.

USD vs. The World

The US Dollar continues to press down against all currencies. The result of the second-round vote in Georgia for the Senate is not expected to significantly impact its price since the main factor of weakening the US currency will continue to be the Fed's monetary policy.

USD/JPY is at low levels of the last four years and technically does not find any obstacles until the intermediate support zone of 101.50.

To take into account that the Japanese Ministry of Finance warned that it would not allow a strengthening of its currency below 100 in its price against the Dollar, so if the pair continues on its way down and mostly if it does so with greater volatility, we could see interventions, not only verbal but in the real market.

Maklumat/penyelidikan ini disediakan oleh Miguel Ruiz (“tpenganalisis penyelidikan”) dan tidak mengambil kira objektif pelaburan tertentu, keadaan kewangan atau keperluan khusus individu. Penganalisis penyelidikan bertanggungjawab terhadap kandungan laporan penyelidikan ini, samada sebahagian atau keseluruhannya, memperakui bahawa pandangan mengenai syarikat dan sekuriti mereka yang dinyatakan dalam laporan ini jelas mencerminkan pandangan peribadi dan pedagang bertanggungjawab sepenuhnya ke atas risiko mereka sendiri.

Penyelidikan yang disediakan bukanlah pandangan JME Financial Services (Pty) Ltd ataupun undangan untuk melabur dengan JME Financial Services (Pty) Ltd. Penganalisis penyelidikan juga memperakui bahawa tiada sebahagian daripada pampasannya, adalah, atau akan, secara langsung atau tidak langsung, berkaitan dengan cadangan atau pandangan tertentu yang dinyatakan dalam laporan ini.

Sehingga tarikh laporan diterbitkan, penganalisis penyelidikan dan pasangannya dan/atau saudara-mara yang bergantung kepada penganalisis penyelidikan, tidak memegang kepentingan dalam sekuriti yang dicadangkan dalam laporan ini (“kepentingan” termasuk pemilikan langsung atau tidak langsung terhadap sekuriti).

Penganalisis penyelidikan tersebut bukanlah di bawah JME Financial Services (Pty) Ltd. Anda digalakkan mendapatkan nasihat daripada penasihat kewangan bebas mengenai kesesuaian pelaburan, di bawah penglibatan berasingan, seperti yang anda anggap sesuai dengan objektif pelaburan tertentu anda, keadaan kewangan atau keperluan kewangan tertentu sebelum membuat komitmen untuk melabur.

Undang-undang Republik Afrika Selatan akan mengawal sebarang tuntutan yang berkaitan dengan atau yang timbul daripada kandungan maklumat/ penyelidikan yang disediakan.

JME Financial Services (Pty) Ltd, beroperasi sebagai ZA.CAPEX.COM, bertindak sebagai perantara antara pelabur dan Magnasale Trading Ltd, rakan kontrak untuk perbezaan yang dibeli oleh pelabur melalui ZA.CAPEX.COM, yang diberi kuasa dan dikawal selia oleh Cyprus Securities. dan Suruhanjaya Pertukaran dengan nombor lesen 264/15. Magnasale Trading Ltd adalah prinsip utama CFD yang dibeli oleh pelabur.