Busy day for global equities, as markets try to return to normal – Market Overview

Busy day for global equities, as markets try to return to normal – Market Overview

The U.S and European long-term bond yields continue on an apparent unstoppable upward path.

Expectations of a rapid economic recovery grow in the market, but with the fear of an inflationary process, we are far from confirming this fact.

Central banks will not take long to start worrying about the rise in interest rates in the curve's longest references. In fact, through its president Christine Lagarde, the European Central Bank has already stated that it will be vigilant to avoid it by taking the necessary measures.

However, the Federal Reserve does not show any concern in this regard and rules out any possibility of an inflationary threat for now.

The consequences of these long-term rate hikes in the markets are, for the moment, minor, with only a slowdown noted in the upward movement of the stock markets, although in some cases, such as the USA30, it reached a new all-time high yesterday.

The return to normal due to the massive administration of vaccines and the imminent approval of the fiscal stimulus package that could boost consumption are the causes that support the movement of the USA30, which are mainly composed of cyclical stocks ​​more sensitive to economic growth.

However, the other indices, such as the USA500, have lagged somewhat, and although they also recovered yesterday, they have not managed to overcome previous highs.

Technically, this index broke down a reversal pattern on February 23 of this month and punctually reached its theoretical target at the levels of 3806, but immediately recovered all the lost territory.

In any case, everything seems to indicate that stock indices are losing steam, mainly due to the uncertainty created by the rebound in long-term interest rates.

As proof of this, the VIX index that reflects the volatility expectations of the S& P500 remains at levels above the historical average, although the underlying index is at the highest levels and although it has lost momentum, it has not yet experienced no substantial drop.

This signifies that investors are more uncertain about the upcoming evolution of the stock markets and are beginning to use the VIX index as a hedge against possible falls.

In this sense, there is no unanimity of criteria in the market. This is reflected in a report published yesterday by the investment bank JP Morgan which, despite these facts, considers investors' concern to be excessive, and anticipates new rises in the stock markets and rates the current levels of the VIX index as a bubble.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters.

Maklumat/penyelidikan ini disediakan oleh Miguel Ruiz (“tpenganalisis penyelidikan”) dan tidak mengambil kira objektif pelaburan tertentu, keadaan kewangan atau keperluan khusus individu. Penganalisis penyelidikan bertanggungjawab terhadap kandungan laporan penyelidikan ini, samada sebahagian atau keseluruhannya, memperakui bahawa pandangan mengenai syarikat dan sekuriti mereka yang dinyatakan dalam laporan ini jelas mencerminkan pandangan peribadi dan pedagang bertanggungjawab sepenuhnya ke atas risiko mereka sendiri.

Penyelidikan yang disediakan bukanlah pandangan JME Financial Services (Pty) Ltd ataupun undangan untuk melabur dengan JME Financial Services (Pty) Ltd. Penganalisis penyelidikan juga memperakui bahawa tiada sebahagian daripada pampasannya, adalah, atau akan, secara langsung atau tidak langsung, berkaitan dengan cadangan atau pandangan tertentu yang dinyatakan dalam laporan ini.

Sehingga tarikh laporan diterbitkan, penganalisis penyelidikan dan pasangannya dan/atau saudara-mara yang bergantung kepada penganalisis penyelidikan, tidak memegang kepentingan dalam sekuriti yang dicadangkan dalam laporan ini (“kepentingan” termasuk pemilikan langsung atau tidak langsung terhadap sekuriti).

Penganalisis penyelidikan tersebut bukanlah di bawah JME Financial Services (Pty) Ltd. Anda digalakkan mendapatkan nasihat daripada penasihat kewangan bebas mengenai kesesuaian pelaburan, di bawah penglibatan berasingan, seperti yang anda anggap sesuai dengan objektif pelaburan tertentu anda, keadaan kewangan atau keperluan kewangan tertentu sebelum membuat komitmen untuk melabur.

Undang-undang Republik Afrika Selatan akan mengawal sebarang tuntutan yang berkaitan dengan atau yang timbul daripada kandungan maklumat/ penyelidikan yang disediakan.

JME Financial Services (Pty) Ltd, beroperasi sebagai ZA.CAPEX.COM, bertindak sebagai perantara antara pelabur dan Magnasale Trading Ltd, rakan kontrak untuk perbezaan yang dibeli oleh pelabur melalui ZA.CAPEX.COM, yang diberi kuasa dan dikawal selia oleh Cyprus Securities. dan Suruhanjaya Pertukaran dengan nombor lesen 264/15. Magnasale Trading Ltd adalah prinsip utama CFD yang dibeli oleh pelabur.