The US electoral process appears to be complicated
Candidate Biden announces that both he and his team are beginning to prepare for a bumpy transition. The news about external interference from countries such as Iran or Russia, the first against Trump and the second in favor of him, muddy the political process and anticipate the possibility of a contested electoral result by the current president in case he loses elections.
This is the main cause for today’s market return to risk-off mode. In fact, we have been observing these sudden changes from one day to the next within an indecisive market very typical of the pre-electoral period in which we find ourselves.
The fact that an agreement on the fiscal stimulus package has not been reached is also influencing this new negative market sentiment, if only circumstantially. We need to take into account that after the elections its implementation will be likely, but the possibility that the result be delayed because it is contested worries investors.
This would delay not only the entire political process but also the approval of the necessary fiscal stimulus package.
Stock markets experience slight setbacks today with the TECH100 index losing just over 0.15% in the early moments of the session.
In the currency market, the Dollar strengthens after yesterday's losses, a movement coming from a flow of refuge search.
EUR/USD, which broke up to the 1.1880 zone yesterday, falls back more than 50 pips from highs and is back at the top of the previous range zone at 1.1820.
Its future evolution will depend on how electoral events unfold. If the tension increases and the possibility of a contested election result is high, the Dollar will act as a safe haven and the EUR/USD pair could return again to the lower part of the previous range in the 1.17000 zone.
The economic figures are no longer relevant in this scenario and everything will depend on political events.
In this context of uncertainty, COPPER, whose price is directly related to economic growth, has slowed its upward climb and is backing more than 1% today, after having reached the highest levels in two years.
Support is found at the 100 and 200 hourly SMA zone at 3.1200 and 3.0900.
Note that the correlation between this metal and the North American indices is high.
The research provided does not constitute the views of JME Financial Services (Pty)Ltd nor is it an invitation to invest with JME Financial Services (Pty)Ltd. The research analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
As of the date the report is published, the research analyst and his/her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the research analyst, do not hold interests in the securities recommended in this report (“interest” includes direct or indirect ownership of securities).
The research analyst in not employed by JME Financial Services (Pty)Ltd. You are encouraged to seek advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit that conforms to your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular financial needs before making a commitment to invest.
The laws of the Republic of South Africa shall govern any claim relating to or arising from the contents of the information/ research provided.
JME Financial Services (Pty) Ltd trading as ZA.CAPEX.COM acts as intermediary between the investor and Magnasale Trading Ltd, the counterparty to the contract for difference purchased by the Investor via ZA.CAPEX.COM, authorised & regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission with license number 264/15. Magnasale Trading Ltd is the principal to the CFD purchased by investors