The North American S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high on Thursday, driven by energy stocks. Oil prices rose due to OPEC+ failing to reach a consensus on the increase in production.
The OPEC + meeting had to be postponed one day after the United Arab Emirates was unwilling to accept a preliminary agreement for an increase of 0.5 million barrels per day. Another proposal, this time for gradual increases in 400k bpd each month until December, which would mean an additional supply of 2M bpd, was also rejected. The UAE and Iraq considered it excessive, considering Iran’s possible market entry in the near future.
Oil prices remained near their highest level since October 2018, as potentially higher production is expected to be comfortably absorbed by an undersupplied market amid strong demand.
According to energy market analysts, an increase of 500k bpd and even 1M bpd could hardly prevent a further rise in oil prices, as OPEC estimates demand will exceed the current market supply by 1.9 million barrels per day in the second half of the year.
The currency market.
Meanwhile, in the currency market, the U.S. Dollar does not stop its upward path before the employment figures scheduled for today. The NFP forecasts are optimistic, estimating a figure of 700k and a decrease in the unemployment rate up to 5.7%. The better-than-expected ADP Non-farm employment figures released on Thursday also contributed to these good expectations in addition to the employment components of the PMI figures.
The Dollar's strength is encouraged by the increasingly frequent comments of Fed members, who seem to be in favor of starting the reduction of asset purchases and the withdrawal of stimuli as early as this year. In such a context, the Treasury Bond Yields advanced, but are still far from the highest levels reached recently.
The U.S. Dollar rose against all its counterparts, with the most significant gains against the British pound. GBP/USD is approaching a critical support level located at 1.3672 below, which the uptrend that began last September could end, paving its way to further losses.
Sources: Bloomberg, reuters.com.
The research provided does not constitute the views of JME Financial Services (Pty)Ltd nor is it an invitation to invest with JME Financial Services (Pty)Ltd. The research analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
As of the date the report is published, the research analyst and his/her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the research analyst, do not hold interests in the securities recommended in this report (“interest” includes direct or indirect ownership of securities).
The research analyst in not employed by JME Financial Services (Pty)Ltd. You are encouraged to seek advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit that conforms to your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular financial needs before making a commitment to invest.
The laws of the Republic of South Africa shall govern any claim relating to or arising from the contents of the information/ research provided.
JME Financial Services (Pty) Ltd trading as ZA.CAPEX.COM acts as intermediary between the investor and Magnasale Trading Ltd, the counterparty to the contract for difference purchased by the Investor via ZA.CAPEX.COM, authorised & regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission with license number 264/15. Magnasale Trading Ltd is the principal to the CFD purchased by investors