Notifications Bell

Rate hikes announcements move the bond market

Rate hikes announcements move the bond market

US bond yields bonds remained around 1.80% after the Fed said it would soon end the bond-buying process and raise rates.

Everything will depend on the inflation figures scheduled for publishing as early as next week, and to a certain extent, on the wage component - average hourly earnings – due to be released this Friday.

In Europe, the situation is different, with an unemployment rate at 7%, well above the US rate, and core inflation of 2.5% that only slightly exceeds ECB’s inflation target of 2%.

However, markets have been betting that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates three times this year by 10 basis points for just a few days now.

This has pushed the German BUND bond yield to positive levels, 0.03%, for the first time since March 2019.

And all this, although the ECB president Christine Lagarde recently stated that a rate hike in 2022 seems "highly unlikely." That's what she said last month, but since then, strong fourth-quarter economic readings were released, including German annual inflation on Monday at 4.9%, showing that price growth in the euro area is likely to exceed the ECB's median forecast of 3.2% for this year. This is causing countries like Germany and others around it, traditionally sensitive to inflation, to publicly show their concern and press for a change in European monetary policy.

With ECB rate hike bets and Fed rate hikes already partially priced in for 2022, the euro rebounded from 19-month lows against the dollar, gaining more than 130 pips in the last two trading days.

Tomorrow's ECB meeting will be decisive in this regard. Everyone will be watching Lagarde's statements in case she gives any signal that points to potential interest rate hikes. But at the moment, it seems very unlikely; the pressure exerted by the process already initiated by the Fed is evident. Still, the situation in Europe differs greatly from that of the United States, and a change towards a more restrictive monetary policy could put some European countries in serious difficulties.

Meanwhile, the EUR/USD corrected sharply and traded around the 200 hourly SMA approaching the 1.1300 reversal level.

At the moment, it can be considered just a simple technical correction, with most market participants forecasting the pair will continue trading in lower areas around 1.1000.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters.

This information/research prepared by Miguel Ruiz (“the research analyst”) does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views and consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

The research provided does not constitute the views of JME Financial Services (Pty)Ltd nor is it an invitation to invest with JME Financial Services (Pty)Ltd. The research analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

As of the date the report is published, the research analyst and his/her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the research analyst, do not hold interests in the securities recommended in this report (“interest” includes direct or indirect ownership of securities).

The research analyst in not employed by JME Financial Services (Pty)Ltd. You are encouraged to seek advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit that conforms to your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular financial needs before making a commitment to invest.

The laws of the Republic of South Africa shall govern any claim relating to or arising from the contents of the information/ research provided.

JME Financial Services (Pty) Ltd trading as ZA.CAPEX.COM acts as intermediary between the investor and Magnasale Trading Ltd, the counterparty to the contract for difference purchased by the Investor via ZA.CAPEX.COM, authorised & regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission with license number 264/15. Magnasale Trading Ltd is the principal to the CFD purchased by investors