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EUR/USD & Gold Traders Started the Count down

EUR/USD & Gold Traders Started the Count down

Coronavirus updates, Brexit negotiations, the US elections, how is the market risk sentiment looks like?

The South Korean GDP YoY (Q3) of -1.3% came in better than expected of -1.9% and far better than the prior of -2.7%. The data shows a better performance of the South Korean economy nonetheless, it is still early to talk about a V shape recovery.

Equities

Factors as postponing the US fiscal package until after elections combined with concerns of COVID-19 negative effects on the global economy have weighed on the global stock market on Monday.

While Investors count down to the US elections, Joe Biden is still leading in the national polls. The 10 polls average indicate that over 50% of Americans are backing the Democratic candidate. That said, in 2016 President Trump won the US elections even with Hilary Clinton lead in the national polls therefore, it is still too early to say who will occupy the oval office for the next four years.

The second wave of the coronavirus shows bigger infections however a lower death toll. That could be somehow positive, but it is still worrying to authorities that struggle to control the spread and confront opposition to restrictions.

Stock Market

Change %

S&P 500

-1.7%

Dow Jones

-2.2%

NASDQ

-1.5%

Japan 225

-0.6%

DAX 30

-3.7%

FTSE 100

-1.4%

CAC 40

-2.0%

EUR/USD and Main FX Markets

The risk-off sentiment in the market helped the greenback price to stabilize this week. The US Dollar index remained above 92.40. However, a daily close below this level could send the price even lower for a test of the September 1 low at 91.71.

Last week, the EUR/USD broke above 1.1750 and the 50-day average. Although, the technical outlook of the pair remains neutral while below 1.1909. A daily close above that level changes the outlook to positive.

GBP/USD: Investors follow the EU-UK negotiations, as both sides have started intense talks aiming to close a deal in November. London is negotiating with the EU and keeps an eye on the US elections. A win of President Trump increases the odds of ending the EU-UK negotiations without or with a humble deal, as the UK PM could use his good relationship with Trump to cut a better deal with the US.

Gold and Oil

The crude price opened this week with a downward gap caused by concerns of increasing coronavirus cases that could affect the prospects for oil demand while supply is increasing. Last week the Brent Crude closed below the 50-day average and on Monday, the price retreated by 2.7% eying a test of 39.60.

The Gold price has traded in a sideways move this week as failed to close above $1,921. The precious metal could be moving towards a test of the low end of the current trading zone $1,921- $1,861.

Looking Ahead

Not much today on the economic calendar, at 1:30PM (GMT) EUR/USD and Gold traders expect the US durable goods orders of September, and the US house price index number of August will be released at 2:00 PM. Finally, the US consumer confidence figures for October comes at 3:00 PM.

This information/research prepared by Mahmoud Alkudsi does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views and consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. The research provided does not constitute the views of JME Financial Services (Pty)Ltd nor is it an invitation to invest with JME Financial Services (Pty)Ltd. The research analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. As of the date the report is published, the research analyst and his/her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the research analyst, do not hold interests in the securities recommended in this report (“interest” includes direct or indirect ownership of securities). The research analyst in not employed by JME Financial Services (Pty)Ltd. You are encouraged to seek advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit that conforms to your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular financial needs before making a commitment to invest. The laws of the Republic of South Africa shall govern any claim relating to or arising from the contents of the information/ research provided.