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EUR/USD & Gold Trade in a Sideways Move While Risk-off Mode Persists

EUR/USD & Gold Trade in a Sideways Move While Risk-off Mode Persists

Markets sentiment remains unchanged as the coronavirus second wave continues hitting records.

The Australian inflation rate (Q3) of 0.7% released earlier of 0.7% came in line with expectations of 0.7% and better than the prior read of -0.3%. This data shows better performance of the Australian economy in the third quarter of 2020 however, the inflation headline is still far away from its target of 2.0%.

Equities

Most global stock markets closed in the red on Tuesday on concerns about the impact of the second wave of the coronavirus may lead some countries to a partial shutdown. The COVID-19 infections are at an all-time high in Europe. Belgium and the Czech Republic are among the countries hardest hit by the virus. Add to this the US elections uncertainty.

National polls show clearly that Joe Biden has the edge however, investors still remember that 2016 polls favored Hilary Clinton and, in the end, Trump won. All of the above combined with the likelihood of delaying the relief package until after the US elections have kept markets on risk-off mode.

Stock Market

Change %

S&P 500

-0.7%

Dow Jones

-1.1%

NASDQ

+0.4%

Japan 225

-0.1%

DAX 30

-2.2%

FTSE 100

-1.4%

CAC 40

-3.0%

EUR/USD and Main FX Markets

The risk-off sentiment in the market helped the greenback price to stabilize this week. The US Dollar index rebounded on Tuesday from the 50-day moving average. Another failure in closing above the 50-day SMA may cause a fall towards 92.40. A daily close below this level could send the price even lower for a test of the September 1 low at 91.71.

The technical outlook of the EUR/USD remains neutral while below 1.1909. A daily close above that level changes the outlook to positive.

GBP/USD stabilized above 1.3000 amid news about the UE-UK negotiations are getting closer to a deal and talks could be wrapped by mid- November at the latest. The pair does not reflect any risk of hard Brexit yet, hence any news of talks collapse at this stage could weigh heavily on the price.

Gold and Oil

The weaker prospect of global demand on fuel caused by the second wave of the coronavirus weighed on crude price, even with reducing the US Gulf of Mexico’s oil volumes by half ahead of Zeta storm. The Brent Crude may fall below the $40 threshold for its first time in over three weeks. A daily close below $39.60 could send the price even lower towards $37.00 a barrel.

Last week, the Gold price failed to break above the October 12 high at $1,921 showing weaker bulls. Since then the precious metal has traded without a clear trend and could be on the way to test $1,861.

Looking Ahead

Not much today on the economic calendar, traders expect the US goods trade balance of September at 1:30 PM (GMT) and the Bank of Canada interest rate at 3:00 PM then the change in the US oil inventories comes at 3:30 PM.

This information/research prepared by Mahmoud Alkudsi does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views and consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. The research provided does not constitute the views of JME Financial Services (Pty)Ltd nor is it an invitation to invest with JME Financial Services (Pty)Ltd. The research analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. As of the date the report is published, the research analyst and his/her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the research analyst, do not hold interests in the securities recommended in this report (“interest” includes direct or indirect ownership of securities). The research analyst in not employed by JME Financial Services (Pty)Ltd. You are encouraged to seek advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit that conforms to your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular financial needs before making a commitment to invest. The laws of the Republic of South Africa shall govern any claim relating to or arising from the contents of the information/ research provided.