No progress yet in final Brexit talks – Market Overview – December 7

No progress yet in final Brexit talks – Market Overview – December 7

The week begins, dominated by uncertainty in all areas.

Brexit

The Brexit negotiations fail to reach a satisfactory agreement for both parties despite the talks held over the weekend between the President of the European Commission, Von der Leyen, and the British Prime Minister, Johnson.

A new meeting between the two leaders is expected for this afternoon in recent conversations that are being considered by the market as the 'last opportunity to lead to a Brexit with the agreement’. No details of the issues that are being discussed are being provided. They are negotiating on these previous talks, which are undoubtedly the last before the total separation of the United Kingdom from the European Union.

Where this concern is most noticed is in the currency. A lack of agreement or what is known as a hard Brexit would further affect the British economy, whose trade would be subject to export tariffs. It should not be forgotten that the UK's leading trading partner is the European Union itself. For this reason, the British Pound has collapsed as the lack of progress between the two leaders became known, and the shadow of a hard Brexit approached closer.

In its price against the dollar, GBP/USD has lost almost two figures immediately, retreating towards the starting area of ​​the last bearish leg located between 1.3150 and 1.3200 that now act as support and whose loss, from a technical perspective, would take it back to the levels where the 100 days SMA, 1.3070, are currently running.

Against the Euro, EUR/GBP has experienced a powerful bullish momentum to 0.9150, with an advance of more than one figure in the pair. It is necessary for the pair to overcome this area with a daily close in order, from a technical point of view, to exceed the 0.9212 and 0.9240 highs, which would be the beginning of a new uptrend.

But for this to happen, the British currency has to continue to weaken further, and a possible cause would be the termination of the Brexit negotiations without any agreement.

The US stimulus plan

Another source of uncertainty for the markets continues to be the United States fiscal stimulus plan.

Despite the overt rapprochement between Republican and Democratic representatives, these economic stimulus funds' size and content have not yet been defined. The Republican representative seems to propose an amount of 900 billion dollars, specifically to alleviate the damage caused by the pandemic.

Still, everything indicates that it will not be enough to reach an agreement. Although, indeed, the advances of the vaccine, the proximity of its administration eliminate the risk of prolonging the measures of social distancing and therefore of more significant damage to consumption and the economy in general, something that was not yet known in the first negotiations, the difference between the initial Democratic proposal, above 2 trillion dollars. The latter from the Republicans is large enough that the agreement is far off.

Meanwhile, the stock markets continue to fluctuate without showing any exact directional impulse but maintaining an optimistic bias, reflected in the indices remaining at the top of the levels reached recently, which are historic highs.

لا تأخذ المعلومات/البحوث التي قام بإعدادها ميغيل رويز (""محلل الأبحاث"") في الاعتبار أي أهداف استثمارية محددة أو الوضع المالي أو الاحتياجات الخاصة لأي شخص بعينه. ويُقِر محلل الأبحاث المسئول بشكل رئيسي عن محتوى هذا التقرير البحثي، جزئياً أو كلياً، أن وجهات النظر حول الشركات وأوراقها المالية الواردة في هذا التقرير تعكس بدقة وجهات نظره الشخصية فحسب، وبالتالي فإن أي شخص يتصرف بناءً عليها يفعل ذلك على مسئوليته الخاصة بشكل كامل.

لا يمثل البحث المقدم هنا آراء JME Financial Services (Pty)Ltd كما لا يعتبر دعوة للاستثمار مع JME Financial Services (Pty)Ltd. يُقِر محلل الأبحاث أيضاً أن جزء من التعويض الذي يحصل عليه، أو سيحصل عليه، بشكل مباشر أو غير مباشر، يرتبط بالتوصيات أو الآراء الواردة في هذا التقرير.

اعتباراً من تاريخ نشر التقرير، لا يمتلك محلل الأبحاث وزوجته/زوجها و/أو أقاربه الذين يعتمدون عليه في أمورهم المالية، حصصاً في الأوراق المالية الموصى بها في هذا التقرير (تشمل ""الحصص"" الملكية المباشرة أو غير المباشرة للأوراق المالية).

لا يعمل محلل الأبحاث لدى JME Financial Services (Pty)Ltd. ننصحك بطلب الحصول على استشارة من مستشار مالي مستقل بخصوص مدى ملائمة الاستثمار، بموجب ترتيبات منفصلة، والتأكد من ملائمته وتوافقه مع أهدافك الاستثمارية المحددة، وضعك المالي أو احتياجات المالية الخاصة قبل الالتزام بالاستثمار.

تحكم قوانين جمهورية جنوب أفريقيا أي مطالبات تتعلق بمحتوى المعلومات/الأبحاث المقدمة أو تنشأ كنتيجةً لها.

تعمل JME Financial Services (Pty) Ltd ، التي تعمل باسم ZA.CAPEX.COM ، كوسيط بين المستثمر وشركة Magnasale Trading Ltd ، نظير العقد الذي يشتريه المستثمر من خلال ZA.CAPEX.COM ، المرخص له و خاضعة لرقابة قبرص للأوراق المالية. وعمولة الصرف برقم ترخيص 264/15. Magnasale Trading Ltd هو مدير العقود مقابل الفروقات التي يشتريها المستثمرون.